Is the current population size in Hungary sustainable in the context of changing childbearing preferences?
Abstract
In our study, we review the main economic, cultural, and social processes contributed to the decline in the total fertility rate in developed countries. According to the result of the literature review these trends may persist in the future or may become even stronger, so an increase in the total fertility rate is unlikely in the long term. In a microeconomic model framework, we show that regardless of the marginal cost of the child, families with a smaller number of children become more and more ideal if the marginal benefit of the child for the parents decreases to a large extent. Based on the results of an international comparison, we came to the conclusion that the increasing total fertility rate observed in Hungary in recent years was largely the result of a slowdown in fertility postponement, and the increase in the ratio was observed in most countries of the region. The change in family support programmes affected this process less. As a result, the favourable trends of the past decade may be reversed in the near future, with the total fertility rate in Hungary set to fall significantly again. This is also confirmed by the fact that the positive correlation between fertility and GDP per capita observed in the early 2000s has significantly decreased in developed countries, and in the light of the latest data, it has completely disappeared in the European Union. Without confronting changing preferences, it is therefore worth thinking about how to reallocate resources to better adapt to the challenges of an ageing society.
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