Treshold testing based on public safety risk: an experimental simulation by support vector machine method at the regional level, China
Abstract
Ever since the concept of public safety has expanded in contemporary society, it has tried to mitigate the risks that lead to uncertainties both from the state to individual level. On the system perspective, vulnerability-capacity theory is a framework for disaster management. Despite theoretical advances, the quantitative threshold value between vulnerability and managing capacity in the public safety has not yet been measured. In this paper, we use the method of Support Vector Machine (SVM) as a simulation tool to reveal the threshold effect by the indicator-based provincial data at different geographical scales in China. The study established a hierarchical index system and verified the threshold effect in the quantitative level. Results find out that when the regional public safety index exceeds a particular threshold value, the number of safety incidents will arise at a high level along with the increasing of the risk index. Therefore, to achieve a sound safety environment in China, the vulnerability-capacity element ought to be highly addressed for the local government and maintain its mutual relation at an appropriate level.
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