A nagy nyelvi modellek potenciális termelékenységi hatásai a magyar gazdaságban
Absztrakt
A tanulmány a nagy nyelvi modellek (Large Language Model, LLMs) termelékenységre és gazdasági növekedésre gyakorolt potenciális hatását vizsgálja Magyarországon. Az elemzés Acemoglu (2025), valamint Aghion és Bunel (2024) keretrendszereire épül, és a hazai munkaerőpiac munkakörszintű LLM-érintettségének becslését használja fel, álláshirdetési adatok alapján. A számítások szerint az LLM-ek által érintett gazdasági tevékenységek aránya mérsékelt, ami a teljes tényezőtermelékenység (TFP) 0,25–0,81 százalékpontos növekedését eredményezheti a következő évtizedben. Ez éves szinten 0,05–0,15 százalékpontos GDP-növekedésnek felel meg. A becsült hatások elmaradnak az amerikai eredményektől, ami elsősorban a hazai munkaerő alacsonyabb LLM-érintettségével és a munkajövedelmek GDP-ből való kisebb részesedésével magyarázható. Az eredmények rámutatnak az iparági és munkaerőpiaci szerkezet, valamint a jövedelemeloszlás szerepére az MI által elérhető növekedési potenciál alakulásában.
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