The impact of sanction announcements on the prices of various crude oils in the shadow of war
Abstract
The study examines the effects of sanction announcements targeting Russia and affecting various segments of the oil industry, focusing on the spot prices of three different crude oil portfolios: Brent, WTI, and Urals. The aim of the study is to identify a correlation between the announcements and market movements during the period following the onset of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Event analysis methodology was employed to investigate market efficiency under the shadow of sanction announcements. The analysis focused on four key events (the U.S. embargo, the G7 price cap, and the adoption of the 6th and 8th EU sanction packages) to determine whether there were significant deviations in actual returns compared to expectations. The results indicate that the different announcements had varying impacts: surprise announcements resulted in significant effects, while the information content of announcements preceded by political dialogue had already been incorporated into prices. Furthermore, after the war began, the values of the Urals oil portfolio diverged from the price movements of the other two portfolios under study. At the conclusion of the study, the practical, policy-related, and theoretical contributions of the research were also examined.
References
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Published
2025-01-15
How to Cite
Kökény L., & KelemenH. (2025). The impact of sanction announcements on the prices of various crude oils in the shadow of war. Hungarian Economic Review, 72(1), 20-49. Retrieved from https://ojs.mtak.hu/index.php/kszemle/article/view/18134
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