Trends in actual evaporation from open water surfaces along the Hungarian section of the Tisza River based on various estimation methods
Abstract
Accurate estimation of actual evaporation is of fundamental importance for assessing river hydrology, water management, and the impacts of climate change, particularly in the case of large-scale watercourses. The aim of this study is to estimate and conduct a comparative analysis of actual evaporation along the entire Hungarian section of the Tisza River using three different physically based models (Penman–Monteith, De Bruin–Keijman, and Makkink). The analysis is based on meteorological data from 11 gauging stations between 2001 and 2023, examining spatial patterns, trends, and correlations between the models on annual and seasonal scales. The results show slight absolute differences between the models: the annual cumulative values of the Penman–Monteith model are the highest (835-963 mm/year), those of the Makkink-model are intermediate (756-817 mm/year), while those of the DBK-model are the lowest (693-752 mm/year). The spatial pattern along the river was not uniform: increases were observed in some places, while decreases were observed in others in the models’ results. In contrast, all models exhibited an increasing temporal trend, which is consistent with the region’s intensifying warming and changes in radiative conditions. The strongest correlation was shown by the Makkink–DBK-model pair (R² = 0.913, averaged across all stations). The novelty of this study lies in its comparison of evaporation estimation methods over a long time series across the entire Hungarian section of the Tisza River. Based on its results, the Makkink-model offers a reliable compromise in a limited data environment and is well-suited for studies related to water management and climate research on the Tisza River.
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