An integrated, model-based estimation of the projected impact of climate change on the Upper-Tisza, with the quantification of uncertainty
Keywords:
Climate change impact analysis, frequency analysis of hydrological variables, spatially distributed stochastic weather generator, distributed hydrological modelling, RegCM4 regional climate model, bias correction, Monte Carlo simulation, case study, Upper-Tisza
Abstract
The effects of climate change on hydrological time series are evaluated, based on an integrated, model-based projection. Simulations were completed for the past and future using the distributed, physically based DIWA hydrological model adapted for the Upper-Tisza catchment. The hydrological simulations were driven by meteorological time series: the observation based CARPATCLIM dataset (1961-2010) and the RegCM4 regional climate model simulation (1971-2099). Several possible meteorological time series were created for the historical and the future period as well by a weather generator (DIWA-SDSWG) embedded in a Monte Carlo cycle resulting in hundreds of independent, equally probable time series, hence uncertainty can be assessed, too. The systematic errors of the RCM simulations were eliminated by fitting the parameters of the weather generator based on the differences in the historical period. According to our results, a decrease of the daily average water discharge is likely to occur at Tiszabecs in the 21st century, especially in July and August, while for January and February a moderate increase is projected. On the one hand, the third level of flood warning is projected to occur less frequent in the future (both in the middle and at the end of the 21st century), however, occasionally, they will tend to become more severe than in the historical time period. On the other hand, the occurrence of water discharges below the critical low water level is likely to increase remarkably between July and October, especially by the end of the 21st century.
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Kis A. (2018). Csapadékextrémumok múltbeli tendenciái, jövőre becsült változásai és hidrológiai hatásai. Doktori disszertáció. Témavezető: Dr. Pongrácz Rita, konzulensek: Szabó János Adolf, Dr. Bartholy Judit. ELTE, Budapest, p. 109.
Kis A., Bartholy J., Pongrácz R., Szabó J.A. (2016). A lefolyás extrém jellemzőinek vizsgálata hidrológiai és klimatológiai modellek összekapcsolásával. In: A Magyar Hidrológiai Társaság által rendezett XXXIV. Országos Vándorgyűlés dolgozatai. ISBN 978-963-8172-35-8. Debrecen, 2016. július 5-8.
Kis A., Pongrácz R., Bartholy J., Szabó J.A. (2017). Application of RCM results to hydrological analysis. Időjárás, Vol. 121. Issue 4. pp. 437-452.
Kis A., Szabó J.A., Bartholy J., Pongrácz R. (2018). A XXI. századra becsült klimatikus tendenciák várható hatása a lefolyás szélsőségeire a Felső-Tisza vízgyűjtőjén. In: A Magyar Hidrológiai Társaság által rendezett XXXVI. Országos Vándorgyűlés dolgozatai. ISBN 978-963-8172-39-6. Gyula, 2018. július 4-6.
Kis A., Pongrácz R., Bartholy J., Szabó J.A. (2020). Projection of runoff characteristics as a response to regional climate change in a Central/Eastern European catchment. Hydrological Sciences Journal, Vol. 65. pp. 2256-2273. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2020.1798008
Laczi Z. (2021). Tizenöt éve történt: vízállásrekordok a Tiszán és a Hármas-Körösön. OVF. http://www.ovf.hu/hu/korabbi-erdekessegek-1/15-eve-tortent
Link, T. E., Unsworth, M., Marks, D. (2004). The dynamics of rainfall interception by a seasonal temperate rainforest. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 124. pp. 171-191. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2004.01.010
Martinec, J. (1960). The degree-day factor for snowmelt runoff forecasting. In: IUGG General Assembly of Helsinki, IAHS Commission of Surface Waters, IAHS Publ. No. 51, pp. 468–477.
Martinec, J., Rango, A. (1986). Parameter values for snowmelt runoff modelling. Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 84. pp. 197-219. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(86)90123-X
Matyasovszky I. (2002). Statisztikus klimatológia. ELTE Eötvös Kiadó, Budapest. p. 317. ISBN 963 463 543 1
Molnau, M., Bissell, V.C. (1983). A continuous frozen ground index for flood forecasting. Proceedings 51st Annual Meeting Western Snow Conference, Canadian Water Resources Association, Cambridge, Ontario, pp. 109-119.
Parlange, M.B., Katz, R.W. (2000). An Extended Version of the Richardson Model for Simulating Daily Weather Variables. Journal of Applied Meteorology, Vol. 39. Issue 5. pp. 610-622. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450-39.5.610
Pieczka I., Pongrácz R., Szabóné André K., Kelemen F.D., Bartholy J. (2017). Sensitivity analysis of different parameterization schemes using RegCM4.3 for the Carpathian Region. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Vol. 130. pp. 1175-1188. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1941-4
Pieczka I., Pongrácz R., Bartholy J., Szabóné André K. (2018). Future temperature projections for Hungary based on RegCM4.3 simulations using new representative concentration pathways scenarios. International Journal of Global Warming, Vol. 15. pp. 277-292. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJGW.2018.093121
Pongrácz R., Bartholy J., Szabó J.A. (2013). Distributed hydrological modelling- and stochastic weather generator-based combined estimation technique for future flood frequency using regional climate model simulation. In: 93rd Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society. Austin, TX. Paper J6.1, p. 9. Available online at https://ams.confex.com/ams/93Annual/webprogram/Manuscript/Paper218149/PR-BJSZJA-AMS-2013-paper-final.pdf
Spinoni, J. és a CARPATCLIM projekt csapata (39 szerző) (2015). Climate of the Carpathian Region in 1961–2010: Climatologies and Trends of Ten Variables. Int J Climatol, Vol. 35. pp. 1322-1341. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4059
Stefanovits P. (1992). Talajtan. Mezőgazda Kiadó.p. 379.
Szabó J.A. (2007). Decision Supporting Hydrological Model for River Basin Flood Control. In: Digital Terrain Modelling: Development and Applications in a Policy Support Environment, eds.: Peckham, R.J. and Jordan, Gy., Springer-Verlag, Germany, pp. 145-182. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-36731-4_7
Varga-Haszonits Z. (1969). Determination of the water content and of the evaporation of bare soil. Időjárás, 73. évf. 6. sz. pp. 328-334.
van Vuuren, D.P., Edmonds, J.A., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Thomson, A.M., Hibbard, K., Hurtt, G.C., Kram, T., Krey, V., Lamarque, J.-F., Masui, T., Meinshausen, M., Nakicenovic, N., Smith, S.J., Rose, S. (2011). The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Climatic Change, Vol. 109 pp. 5-31. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z
Walter, H., Lieth, H. (1960). Klimadiagramm-Weltatlas. Fischer, Jena. p. 130.
Attarod, P., Sadeghi S.M.M, Pypker, T.G., Bagheri, H., Bagheri, M., Bayramzadeh, V. (2014). Needle-leaved trees impacts on rainfall interception and canopy storage capacity in an arid environment. In: New Forests p. 17. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11056-014-9464-2
Bardossy, A., Plate, E.J. (1992). Space-time model for daily rainfall using atmospheric circulation patterns. Water Resour. Res., Vol. 28. Issue 5. pp. 1247-1259. https://doi.org/10.1029/91WR02589
Bihari Z., Szentimrey T. (2013). CARPATCLIM Deliverable D2.10. Annex 3 – Description of MASH and MISH algorithms. p. 100.
Collins, W.J., Bellouin, N., Doutriaux-Boucher, M., Gedney, N., Halloran, P., Hinton, T., Hughes, J., Jones, C.D., Joshi, M., Liddicoat, S., Martin, G., O'Connor, F., Rae, J., Senior, C., Sitch, S., Totterdell, I., Wiltshire, A., Woodward, S. (2011). Development and evaluation of an Earth-system model – HadGEM2. Geosci Model Dev, Vol. 4. pp. 997-1062. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-1051-2011
Elguindi, N., Bi, X., Giorgi, F., Nagarajan, B., Pal, J., Solmon, F., Rauscher, S., Zakey, A., Giuliani, G. (2011). Regional climatic model RegCM-User manual. Version 4.3. ICTP, Trieste, Italy. p. 32.
Follum, M.L., Niemann, J.D., Parno, J.T., Downer, C.W. (2018). A simple temperature-based method to estimate heterogeneous frozen ground within a distributed watershed model. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 22 Issue5. pp. 2669-2688. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2669-2018
van Genuchten, M.Th., Leij, F.J., Wu, L. eds. (1999). Characterization and Measurement of the Hydraulic Properties of Unsaturated Porous Media. Parts 1 and 2, University of California, Riverside, CA. pp. 1-12.
Giorgi, F., Marinucci, M.R., Bates, G.T. (1993a). Development of a second generation regional climate model (RegCM2). Part I: Boundary layer and radiative transfer processes. Mon Wea Rev, Vol. 121. pp. 2794-2813. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1993)121<2794:DOASGR>2.0.CO;2
Giorgi, F., Marinucci, M.R., Bates, G.T., DeCanio, G. (1993b). Development of a second generation regional climate model (RegCM2). Part II: Convective processes and assimilation of lateral boundary conditions. Mon Wea Rev, Vol. 121. pp. 2814–2832. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1993)121<2814:DOASGR>2.0.CO;2
von Hoyningen-Huene, J. (1981). Die Interzeption des Niederschlags in landwirtschaftlichen Pflanzenbeständen. In: Arbeitsbericht Deutscher Verband für Wasserwirtschaft und Kulturbau, DVWK, Braunschweig, p. 63.
HYDROInform Bt. (2012). "Az árvízvédelmi információs rendszer fejlesztése a Felső-Tisza vízgyűjtőjén", SH/2/1 reg. sz. projekt. "Az árvízi lefolyás elemzése" résztéma összefoglaló tanulmány. A tanulmány megrendelője: Felső-Tisza-vidéki Vízügyi Igazgatóság (FETIVIZIG), Nyíregyháza. A projekt támogatója: Swiss Hungarian Cooperation Programme. p. 36.
IPCC (2021). Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou [eds.]). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 3-31. doi:10.1017/9781009157896. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896
Katz, R.W., Parlange, M.B. (1998). Overdispersion phenomenon in stochastic modeling of precipitation. J. Clim.,Vol 11. Issue 4. pp. 591-601. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<0591:OPISMO>2.0.CO;2
Kis A. (2018). Csapadékextrémumok múltbeli tendenciái, jövőre becsült változásai és hidrológiai hatásai. Doktori disszertáció. Témavezető: Dr. Pongrácz Rita, konzulensek: Szabó János Adolf, Dr. Bartholy Judit. ELTE, Budapest, p. 109.
Kis A., Bartholy J., Pongrácz R., Szabó J.A. (2016). A lefolyás extrém jellemzőinek vizsgálata hidrológiai és klimatológiai modellek összekapcsolásával. In: A Magyar Hidrológiai Társaság által rendezett XXXIV. Országos Vándorgyűlés dolgozatai. ISBN 978-963-8172-35-8. Debrecen, 2016. július 5-8.
Kis A., Pongrácz R., Bartholy J., Szabó J.A. (2017). Application of RCM results to hydrological analysis. Időjárás, Vol. 121. Issue 4. pp. 437-452.
Kis A., Szabó J.A., Bartholy J., Pongrácz R. (2018). A XXI. századra becsült klimatikus tendenciák várható hatása a lefolyás szélsőségeire a Felső-Tisza vízgyűjtőjén. In: A Magyar Hidrológiai Társaság által rendezett XXXVI. Országos Vándorgyűlés dolgozatai. ISBN 978-963-8172-39-6. Gyula, 2018. július 4-6.
Kis A., Pongrácz R., Bartholy J., Szabó J.A. (2020). Projection of runoff characteristics as a response to regional climate change in a Central/Eastern European catchment. Hydrological Sciences Journal, Vol. 65. pp. 2256-2273. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2020.1798008
Laczi Z. (2021). Tizenöt éve történt: vízállásrekordok a Tiszán és a Hármas-Körösön. OVF. http://www.ovf.hu/hu/korabbi-erdekessegek-1/15-eve-tortent
Link, T. E., Unsworth, M., Marks, D. (2004). The dynamics of rainfall interception by a seasonal temperate rainforest. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 124. pp. 171-191. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2004.01.010
Martinec, J. (1960). The degree-day factor for snowmelt runoff forecasting. In: IUGG General Assembly of Helsinki, IAHS Commission of Surface Waters, IAHS Publ. No. 51, pp. 468–477.
Martinec, J., Rango, A. (1986). Parameter values for snowmelt runoff modelling. Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 84. pp. 197-219. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(86)90123-X
Matyasovszky I. (2002). Statisztikus klimatológia. ELTE Eötvös Kiadó, Budapest. p. 317. ISBN 963 463 543 1
Molnau, M., Bissell, V.C. (1983). A continuous frozen ground index for flood forecasting. Proceedings 51st Annual Meeting Western Snow Conference, Canadian Water Resources Association, Cambridge, Ontario, pp. 109-119.
Parlange, M.B., Katz, R.W. (2000). An Extended Version of the Richardson Model for Simulating Daily Weather Variables. Journal of Applied Meteorology, Vol. 39. Issue 5. pp. 610-622. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450-39.5.610
Pieczka I., Pongrácz R., Szabóné André K., Kelemen F.D., Bartholy J. (2017). Sensitivity analysis of different parameterization schemes using RegCM4.3 for the Carpathian Region. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Vol. 130. pp. 1175-1188. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1941-4
Pieczka I., Pongrácz R., Bartholy J., Szabóné André K. (2018). Future temperature projections for Hungary based on RegCM4.3 simulations using new representative concentration pathways scenarios. International Journal of Global Warming, Vol. 15. pp. 277-292. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJGW.2018.093121
Pongrácz R., Bartholy J., Szabó J.A. (2013). Distributed hydrological modelling- and stochastic weather generator-based combined estimation technique for future flood frequency using regional climate model simulation. In: 93rd Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society. Austin, TX. Paper J6.1, p. 9. Available online at https://ams.confex.com/ams/93Annual/webprogram/Manuscript/Paper218149/PR-BJSZJA-AMS-2013-paper-final.pdf
Spinoni, J. és a CARPATCLIM projekt csapata (39 szerző) (2015). Climate of the Carpathian Region in 1961–2010: Climatologies and Trends of Ten Variables. Int J Climatol, Vol. 35. pp. 1322-1341. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4059
Stefanovits P. (1992). Talajtan. Mezőgazda Kiadó.p. 379.
Szabó J.A. (2007). Decision Supporting Hydrological Model for River Basin Flood Control. In: Digital Terrain Modelling: Development and Applications in a Policy Support Environment, eds.: Peckham, R.J. and Jordan, Gy., Springer-Verlag, Germany, pp. 145-182. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-36731-4_7
Varga-Haszonits Z. (1969). Determination of the water content and of the evaporation of bare soil. Időjárás, 73. évf. 6. sz. pp. 328-334.
van Vuuren, D.P., Edmonds, J.A., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Thomson, A.M., Hibbard, K., Hurtt, G.C., Kram, T., Krey, V., Lamarque, J.-F., Masui, T., Meinshausen, M., Nakicenovic, N., Smith, S.J., Rose, S. (2011). The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Climatic Change, Vol. 109 pp. 5-31. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z
Walter, H., Lieth, H. (1960). Klimadiagramm-Weltatlas. Fischer, Jena. p. 130.
Published
2023-11-27
How to Cite
KisA., PongráczR., BartholyJ., & SzabóJ. A. (2023). An integrated, model-based estimation of the projected impact of climate change on the Upper-Tisza, with the quantification of uncertainty. Hungarian Journal of Hydrology, 103(4), 35-51. https://doi.org/10.59258/hk.13172
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Copyright (c) 2023 Anna Kis, Rita Pongrácz, Judit Bartholy, János Adolf Szabó
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