A drónhadviselés társadalmi kockázatai és implikációi
A herszoni „drónszafari” mint esettanulmány
Kulcsszavak:
dronhadviselés, kognitív hadviselés, reziliencia, civil részvétel, Herszon, esettanulmány
Absztrakt
A modern drónhadviselés nem kizárólag katonai és technológiai jelenség, hanem jelentős társadalmi kockázatokkal is jár. A tanulmány e kockázatokat a kognitív hadviselés, a tár-sadalmi reziliencia és a civil részvétel (crowdsourcing) kölcsönhatásain keresztül vizsgálja. A modern konfliktusok komplex és többdimenziós jellege miatt az egyes jelenségek elkülönített vizsgálata nem alkalmas a társadalmi kockázatok és az adaptív válaszmechanizmusok átfogó értelmezésére. Egy empirikus esettanulmányra támaszkodva az elemzés bemutatja, miként alakítják e kölcsönhatások a társadalmi stabilitás feltételeit, valamint milyen új alkalmazkodási minták és sérülékenységek jelennek meg a drónhadviselés kon-textusában. A tanulmány hangsúlyozza az emergens jelenségek és a dinamikus interak-ciók jelentőségét, és amellett érvel, hogy a drónhadviseléshez kapcsolódó társadalmi koc-kázatok rendszerszintű jelenségek, amelyek kezelése integrált elemzési keretet, valamint a civil–állami együttműködés adaptív és tanulásorientált formáit igényli.
Hivatkozások
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Robinson, Stephen. 2021. The Blind Strategist: John Boyd and the American Art of War. Auckland: Exisle Publishing.
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Asmolov, Gregory 2022. The transformation of participatory warfare: The role of narratives in connective mobilization in the Russia–Ukraine war. Digi War (3), 25–37. https://doi.org/10.1057/s42984-022-00054-5
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Hijazi, Alaa, Ferguson, Christopher J., Ferraro, F. Richard, Hall, Harold, Hovee, Mark, Wilcox Sherrie 2017. Psychological dimensions of drone warfare. Current Psychology 38 (5), 1285–1296. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12144-017-9684-7
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Kimhi, Saul 2016. Levels of resilience: Associations among individual, community, and national resilience. Journal of Health Psychology 21 (2), 164–170. https://doi.org/10.1177/1359105314524009
Kirichenko, David 2025. Ever-faster weapon cycles: Innovation and economics in the war in Ukraine. The Strategist. https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/ever-faster-weapon-cycles-innovation-and-economics-in-the-war-in-ukraine/?utm_
Kirichenko, David, Kuzmin, Mykola 2025. European defence autonomy: Identifying key companies and projects to replace US capabilities. The Henry Jackson Society, 1-40. https://henryjacksonsociety.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/HJS-European-Defence-Autonomy-Report-web.pdf?utm_
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Pace, Rodrigo Metropolo, Coelho, Emilio Reis 2022. Information as a weapon of mass disruption: from information disorder to Cognitive Warfare. Revista Da Escola de Guerra Naval 28 (3), 707–722. https://doi.org/10.21544/2359-3075.v28n3.g
Pastor, Alvaro 2025. Cognitive warfare: The Weaponisation of the Science of Brain and Behaviour. OSF Preprints, 1-41. https://doi.org/10.31219/osf.io/ynfzr_v2 (Letöltés ideje: 2025. 12. 28.
Patel, Sonny S., Rogers, M. Brooke, Amlôt, Richard, Rubin, G. James 2017. What do we mean by “community resilience”? A systematic literature review of how it is defined in the literature. PLOS Currents (9), 1-31. https://doi.org/10.1371/currents.dis.db775aff25efc5ac4f0660ad9c9f7db2
Plaza, Frida Muñoz, Sotelo Monge, Marco Antonio, Ordi, Hector Gonzalez 2023. Towards the Definition of Cognitive Warfare and Related Countermeasures: A Systematic Review In: ARES ‘23: Proceedings of the 18th International Conference on Availability, Reliability and Security 40, 1-7. https://doi.org/10.1145/3600160.3605080
Pripoae-ªerbãnescu, Ciprian. 2023. Cognitive Warfare – Beyond Dominance, Manoeuvres and Information – The Battle for the Imagined Future. Romanian Military Thinking (4), 258-279. https://doi.org/10.55535/RMT.2023.4.16
Putter, Dries 2024. Navigating the interplay of cognitive warfare and counterintelligence in African security strategies: insights and case studies. Journal of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism 20 (2), 173–192 https://doi.org/10.1080/18335330.2024.2440873
Rickli, Jean-Marc, Mantellassi, Federico 2024. The war in Ukraine: Reality check for emerging technologies and the future of warfare. Geneva Paper 34 (24), 1-51. https://www.gcsp.ch/publications/war-ukraine-reality-check-emerging-technologies-and-future-warfare
Spansvoll, Runar 2024. The Weaponisation of Social Media, Crowdfunding and Drones: A People’s War in the Digital Age. The RUSI Journal 169 (1–2), 46–60. https://doi.org/10.1080/03071847.2024.2350478
Szöllõsi Annamária 2025a. A reziliencia jelentése és fogalmi fejlõdése: Multi- és interdiszciplináris perspektíva. Hadtudományi Szemle 18 (1), 77–86. https://doi.org/10.32563/hsz.2025.1.6
Szöllõsi Annamária 2025b. A reziliencia a biztonság kontextusában. Hadtudományi Szemle 18 (2), 161-177. https://doi.org/10.32563/hsz.2025.2.10
Volkov, Andrei 2020. Cognitive Wars: Features of the Geopolitical Conflict In 21st Century. In I. Elkina, & S. Ivanova (eds.): Cognitive - Social, and Behavioural Sciences (1), 281-288. https://doi.org/10.15405/epes.20121.32
Walker, Brian, Holling, Crawford Stanley, Carpenter, Stephen R., Kinzig, Ann 2004. Resilience, adaptability and transformability in social–ecological systems. Ecology and Society 9 (2), 1-9. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-00650-090205
Goncharuk, Vitaliy 2024. Survival of the Smartest? Defense AI in Ukraine. In Borchert, Heiko, Schütz, Torben, Verbovszky, Joseph (eds.): The Very Long Game. Contributions to Security and Defence Studies. 375-395. [Ebook] Springer: Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-58649-1_17
Murray, Williamson, Mansoor, Peter R. 2012. Hybrid warfare: fighting complex opponents from the ancient world to the present. New York: Cambridge University Press
Rid, Thomas 2020. Active Measures: The Secret History of Disinformation and Political Warfare. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux.
Robinson, Stephen. 2021. The Blind Strategist: John Boyd and the American Art of War. Auckland: Exisle Publishing.
Yang Hui, Jennifer 2015. Crowdsourcing for national security. Singapore: S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies Policy Report. https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/189326/PR150317_Crowdsourcing-for-National-Security.pdf
Andersson, Jan Joel, Simon, Sascha 2024. Minding the drone gap: Drone warfare and the EU. European Union Institute for Security Studies 1-4. https://www.iss.europa.eu/publications/briefs/minding-drone-gap-drone-warfare-and-eu (Letöltés ideje: 2025. 12. 28.)
Asmolov, Gregory 2022. The transformation of participatory warfare: The role of narratives in connective mobilization in the Russia–Ukraine war. Digi War (3), 25–37. https://doi.org/10.1057/s42984-022-00054-5
Clapp, Sebastian 2025. Eastern Flank Watch and European Drone Wall. European Parliament Think Tank 1-2. https://epthinktank.eu/2025/10/23/eastern-flank-watch-and-european-drone-wall/ (Letöltés ideje: 2025. 12. 15.)
Cox, Nathaniel L. 2025. Psychological implications of drone warfare on the modern warfighter. Military Psychology 1–7. https://doi.org/10.1080/08995605.2025.2594335
Deveraux, Brennan 2022. Loitering munitions in Ukraine and beyond. War on the Rocks. https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/loitering-munitions-in-ukraine-and-beyond/ (Letöltés ideje: 2025. 12. 15.)
Dobák Imre, Bérczi Péter 2025. Crowdsourcing–lehetõségek és korlátok nemzetbiztonsági szemmel. Belügyi Szemle 73 (3), 593-608. https://doi.org/10.38146/BSZ-AJIA.2025.v73.i3.pp593-608
Eachus, Peter 2014. Community resilience: Is it greater than the sum of the parts of individual resilience?Procedia Economics and Finance (18), 345–351. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(14)00949-6
Feldstein, Steven 2022. Disentangling the digital battlefield: How the internet has changed war. War on the Rocks. https://warontherocks.com/2022/12/disentangling-the-digital-battlefield-how-the-internet-has-changed-war (Letöltés ideje: 2025. 12. 15.)
Fried, Tsiporah 2025. The impact of drones on the battlefield: Lessons of the Russia-Ukraine War from a French perspective. Hudson Institute, 1-12. https://www.hudson.org/missile-defense/impact-drones-battlefield-lessons-russian-ukraine-war-french-perspective-tsiporah-fried (Letöltés ideje: 2025. 12. 15.)
Hijazi, Alaa, Ferguson, Christopher J., Ferraro, F. Richard, Hall, Harold, Hovee, Mark, Wilcox Sherrie 2017. Psychological dimensions of drone warfare. Current Psychology 38 (5), 1285–1296. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12144-017-9684-7
Holling, Crawford Stanley 1973. Resilience and Stability of Ecological Systems. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics (4), 1-23. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.es.04.110173.000245
Jia, Chenyan, Yuson Lee, Angela, Moore, Ryan C., Halsey-Steve Decatur, Cid, Liu, Sunny Xun, Hancock. Jeffrey T., 2024. Collaboration, Crowdsourcing, and Misinformation. PNAS Nexus 3 (10), 1-4. https://doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad434
Kallenborn, Zachary 2022. Seven (initial) drone warfare lessons from Ukraine. Modern War Institute. https://mwi.westpoint.edu/seven-initial-drone-warfare-lessons-from-ukraine/ (Letöltés ideje: 2025. 12. 15.)
Kharazian, Zarine, Jalbert, Madeline, Dash, Saloni, Memon, Shahan Ali, Starbird, Kate, Spiro, Emma S. West Jevin D. 2024. Our field was built on decades-old bodies of research across a range of disciplines. It wasn’t invented by a ‘class of misinformation experts’ in 2016. Center for an Informed Public, University of Washington. https://www.cip.uw.edu/2024/01/24/misinformation-field-research (Letöltés ideje: 2025. 12. 28.)
Kimhi, Saul 2016. Levels of resilience: Associations among individual, community, and national resilience. Journal of Health Psychology 21 (2), 164–170. https://doi.org/10.1177/1359105314524009
Kirichenko, David 2025. Ever-faster weapon cycles: Innovation and economics in the war in Ukraine. The Strategist. https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/ever-faster-weapon-cycles-innovation-and-economics-in-the-war-in-ukraine/?utm_
Kirichenko, David, Kuzmin, Mykola 2025. European defence autonomy: Identifying key companies and projects to replace US capabilities. The Henry Jackson Society, 1-40. https://henryjacksonsociety.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/HJS-European-Defence-Autonomy-Report-web.pdf?utm_
Maksymenko, Serhii Dmytrovich, Derkach, Lidiya Mykolayevna. 2023. Understanding modern cognitive war in the global dimension, its genesis in the ukrainian context. Obrana A Strategie (Defence and Strategy) 23 (1), 126–148. https://doi.org/10.3849/1802-7199.23.2023.01.126-148
Meghraoui, Loukmane, Belkhamza, Zakariya 2025. Cognitive Warfare and Cybersecurity: Strategic Implications for Global Security. Proceedings of the International Conference on Information Warfare and Security 20 (1), 257-264. https://doi.org/10.34190/iccws.20.1.3277
Norris, Fran H., Stevens, Susan P., Pfefferbaum, Betty, Wyche, Karen F., Pfefferbaum, Rose L. 2008. Community Resilience as a Metaphor, Theory, Set of Capacities, and Strategy for Disaster Readiness. American journal of community psychology 41 (1-2), 127-150. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10464-007-9156-6
Pace, Rodrigo Metropolo, Coelho, Emilio Reis 2022. Information as a weapon of mass disruption: from information disorder to Cognitive Warfare. Revista Da Escola de Guerra Naval 28 (3), 707–722. https://doi.org/10.21544/2359-3075.v28n3.g
Pastor, Alvaro 2025. Cognitive warfare: The Weaponisation of the Science of Brain and Behaviour. OSF Preprints, 1-41. https://doi.org/10.31219/osf.io/ynfzr_v2 (Letöltés ideje: 2025. 12. 28.
Patel, Sonny S., Rogers, M. Brooke, Amlôt, Richard, Rubin, G. James 2017. What do we mean by “community resilience”? A systematic literature review of how it is defined in the literature. PLOS Currents (9), 1-31. https://doi.org/10.1371/currents.dis.db775aff25efc5ac4f0660ad9c9f7db2
Plaza, Frida Muñoz, Sotelo Monge, Marco Antonio, Ordi, Hector Gonzalez 2023. Towards the Definition of Cognitive Warfare and Related Countermeasures: A Systematic Review In: ARES ‘23: Proceedings of the 18th International Conference on Availability, Reliability and Security 40, 1-7. https://doi.org/10.1145/3600160.3605080
Pripoae-ªerbãnescu, Ciprian. 2023. Cognitive Warfare – Beyond Dominance, Manoeuvres and Information – The Battle for the Imagined Future. Romanian Military Thinking (4), 258-279. https://doi.org/10.55535/RMT.2023.4.16
Putter, Dries 2024. Navigating the interplay of cognitive warfare and counterintelligence in African security strategies: insights and case studies. Journal of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism 20 (2), 173–192 https://doi.org/10.1080/18335330.2024.2440873
Rickli, Jean-Marc, Mantellassi, Federico 2024. The war in Ukraine: Reality check for emerging technologies and the future of warfare. Geneva Paper 34 (24), 1-51. https://www.gcsp.ch/publications/war-ukraine-reality-check-emerging-technologies-and-future-warfare
Spansvoll, Runar 2024. The Weaponisation of Social Media, Crowdfunding and Drones: A People’s War in the Digital Age. The RUSI Journal 169 (1–2), 46–60. https://doi.org/10.1080/03071847.2024.2350478
Szöllõsi Annamária 2025a. A reziliencia jelentése és fogalmi fejlõdése: Multi- és interdiszciplináris perspektíva. Hadtudományi Szemle 18 (1), 77–86. https://doi.org/10.32563/hsz.2025.1.6
Szöllõsi Annamária 2025b. A reziliencia a biztonság kontextusában. Hadtudományi Szemle 18 (2), 161-177. https://doi.org/10.32563/hsz.2025.2.10
Volkov, Andrei 2020. Cognitive Wars: Features of the Geopolitical Conflict In 21st Century. In I. Elkina, & S. Ivanova (eds.): Cognitive - Social, and Behavioural Sciences (1), 281-288. https://doi.org/10.15405/epes.20121.32
Walker, Brian, Holling, Crawford Stanley, Carpenter, Stephen R., Kinzig, Ann 2004. Resilience, adaptability and transformability in social–ecological systems. Ecology and Society 9 (2), 1-9. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-00650-090205
Megjelent
2026-07-05
Folyóirat szám
Rovat
Biztonságpolitika
