Afganisztán zajos határai – határvillongások a Tálibán és a szomszédos országok között
Kulcsszavak:
Afganisztán, Tálibán, határviták, diplomácia, mediáció
Absztrakt
2025 októberében újra felizzottak az afgán-pakisztáni kapcsolatok, a határvillongásokat ezúttal rakétacsapások is követték, és félő, hogy egy elhúzódó fegyveres konfliktussá eszkalálódik a két ország közötti feszültség. A tálibok 2021-es hatalomátvétele óta a régiót újra jelentős instabilitás jellemzi, melynek epicentrumát ezúttal is a biztonsági fenyegetésekkel és humanitárius válsággal terhelt Afganisztán jelenti. A közép-ázsiai állam szomszédjai eltérő mértékben és módon reagálnak az új kabuli rezsim jelentette kihívásokra, azonban az elmúlt évek egyre sűrűbb fegyveres konfrontálódást mutatnak. A tanulmány reflektál az elmúlt hónapban az afgán-pakisztáni határon lezajlott összecsapásokra. A konkrét események feldolgozásán túl célja egy tágabb kontextusban bemutatni a tálib vezetés és a szomszédos országok között időről-időre felmerülő határkonfliktusok hátterét.
Hivatkozások
Jelentések, dokumentumok:
ACLED 2025. Asia-Pacific Overview: November 2025. https://acleddata.com/update/asia-pacific-overview-november-2025 (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.15.)
CIA World Factbook. Afghanistan https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/afghanistan/#geography (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.01.)
Final Declaration of the Second Vienna Conference Vienna, Austria April 24-26, 2023 / Saur 4-6 - 1402 HS https://www.oiip.ac.at/cms/media/declaration.pdf (Letöltés ideje: 2025.10.31.)
International Boundary Study 1961. Afghanistan – Iran Boundary (Country Codes: AF-IR) The Geographer Office of the Geographer Bureau of Intelligence and Research. No. 6 – June 20, 1961 https://library.law.fsu.edu/Digital-Collections/LimitsinSeas/pdf/ibs006.pdf (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.17.)
International Crisis Group 2024. The Taliban’s Neighbourhood: Regional Diplomacy with Afghanistan. 30 January 2024 https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-asia/afghanistan/337-talibans-neighbourhood-regional-diplomacy-afghanistan (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.15.)
Joint Statement on the Talks Between Afghanistan and Pakistan Through the Mediation of Türkiye and Qatar. Republic of Türkiye Ministry of Foreign Affairs https://www.mfa.gov.tr/joint-statement-on-the-talks-between-afghanistan-and-pakistan-through-the-mediation-of-turkiye-and-qatar-30-10-2025.en.mfa (Letöltés ideje: 2025.10.31.)
Minority Rights Group, Afghanistan é.n. https://minorityrights.org/communities/tajiks/ (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.15.)
OCHA Afghanistan. Overview of the Humanitarian Response in Afghanistan https://www.unocha.org/afghanistan (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.07.)
OEC Afghanistan. Observatory of Economic Complexity https://oec.world/en/profile/country/afg (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.15.)
Small Arms Survey 2025. Blancafort, Manon – LeBrun, Emile - Edoardo Varisco, Andrea. OPEN MARKETS Documenting Arms Availability in Afghanistan under the Taliban. Briefing Paper March 2025. https://www.smallarmssurvey.org/sites/default/files/resources/SAS-BP-2025-Taliban-Arms-Markets-EN.pdf (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.15.)
The Afghan-Iranian Helmand-River Water Treaty 1973. https://www.internationalwaterlaw.org/documents/regionaldocs/1973_Helmand_River_Water_Treaty-Afghanistan-Iran.pdf (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.17.)
UNAMA 2025. UNAMA welcomes Afghanistan-Pakistan ceasefire, urges protection of civilians. 16. Oct. 2025. https://unama.unmissions.org/unama-welcomes-afghanistan-pakistan-ceasefire-urges-protection-civilians (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.15.)
UN SC Resolution 2025 Small arms and light weapons Report of the Secretary-General. S/2025/670 23 October 2025. https://documents.un.org/doc/undoc/gen/n25/262/95/pdf/n2526295.pdf (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.15.)
Folyóirat cikkek:
Bezhan, Faridullah 2014. The Pashtunistan Issue and Politics in Afghanistan, 1947-1952. Middle East Journal Vol. 68, No. 2 (Spring 2014) https://www.jstor.org/stable/43698155 (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.01.)
Kamil, Ikramuddin 2021. Afghanistan, the Amu Darya Basin and Regional Treaties. Chinese Journal of Environmental Law 08. Jul 2021. https://www.hpacenter.org/en/article/1627/afghanistan_the_amu_darya_basin_and_regional_treaties (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.23.)
Kaura, Vinay 2024. Iran-Taliban ties: Pragmatism over ideology. Middle East Institute. April 11, 2024. https://www.mei.edu/publications/iran-taliban-ties-pragmatism-over-ideology (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.17.)
Milani, Mohsen M. 2006. Iran's Policy Towards Afghanistan The Middle East Journal, Volume 60, Number 2, Spring 2006.
Mir, Asfandyar – Olson, Richard – Watkins, Andrew 2022. Afghanistan-Pakistan Border Dispute Heats Up. United States Institute of Peace. January 12, 2022 https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/01/afghanistan-pakistan-border-dispute-heats (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.15.)
Sevea, Iqbal Singh 2021. The Pashtun Question in Pakistan. South Asia Scan Issue No. 10
January 2021. https://www.isas.nus.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/South-Asia-Scan-Vol-10-Full-14.04.21.pdf (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.01.)
Sofos, Spyros A. 2022. Turkey as a Mediator. The University of Edinburgh https://tinyurl.com/4sxfuejn (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.01.)
Turgunbaeva, Aigerim – Ghiasi, Fayazuddin 2025. The Taliban's Diplomatic and Economic Expansion in Central Asia Central Asia – Caucasus Analyst, Analytical Articles 11 March 2025. https://www.cacianalyst.org/publications/analytical-articles/item/13850-the-new-russia-iran-treaty-implications-for-the-south-caucasus-region.html (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.19.)
Zhanaltay, Zhengizkhan – Makhanov, Kanat 2022. Border Clashes in Afghanistan sincet he Taliban takeover. Eurasian Research Institute, Weekly Analysis, 24.01.2022-30.01.2022 No 339 https://www.eurasian-research.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Weekly-e-bulletin-24.01.2022-30.01.2022-No-339.pdf (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.23.)
Internetes hivatkozások:
Aman, Fatemeh 2021. Iran-Taliban growing ties: What’s different this time? Atlantic Council February 16, 2021 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/iransource/iran-taliban-growing-ties-whats-different-this-time/ (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.17.)
Bajoria, Jayshree 2009 The Troubled Afghan-Pakistani Border. Council on Foreign Relations. https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/troubled-afghan-pakistani-border (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.01.)
Baxtiyor Saidov Telegram oldala 2025.07.17. https://t.me/bakhtiyor_saidov/2945
Daly, John C. K. 2022. Rocket Attacks on Tajikistan and Uzbekistan Undermine Taliban Security Claims. Volume 19 Issue 116. https://jamestown.org/rocket-attacks-on-tajikistan-and-uzbekistan-undermine-taliban-security-claims/ (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.23.)
Climate Diplomacy é.n. Water stress and political tensions in Iran. https://climate-diplomacy.org/case-studies/water-stress-and-political-tensions-iran (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.23.)
Dagres, Holly 2023. Iran and Afghanistan are feuding over the Helmand River. The water wars have no end in sight. Atlantic Council, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/iransource/iran-afghanistan-taliban-water-helmand/ (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.23.)
Faizee, Mohd – Schmeier, Suzanne 2023. Troubled waters between Afghanistan and Iran as border troops clash over the Helmand River. Water, Peace and Security June 1, 2023. https://waterpeacesecurity.org/info/blog-01-06-2023-Troubled-waters-between-Afghanistan-and-Iran-as-border-troops-clash-over-the-Helmand-River (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.17.)
Godek, Sarah 2025. China’s Unenthusiastic Economic Engagement with Taliban-Led Afghanistan. Stimson Center. April 9. 2025. https://www.stimson.org/2025/chinas-unenthusiastic-economic-engagement-with-taliban-led-afghanistan/ (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.23.)
Janjua, Haroon 2022. Increasing tension between Taliban and Pakistan. 04/21/2022 Deutsche Welle https://www.dw.com/en/tensions-increase-between-taliban-and-pakistan-over-attacks/a-61535921 (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.15.)
Joles, Betsy 2025. Pakistan and Afghanistan agree to maintain a ceasefire — for now. Here's what to know. NPR world October 31, 2025 https://www.npr.org/2025/10/31/g-s1-95838/pakistan-afghanistan-ceasefire-taliban-turkey-qatar
Kazakhstan Government 2023. Kazakhstan and Afghanistan intend to expand trade and economic cooperation
https://www.gov.kz/memleket/entities/mti/press/news/details/597308?lang=en (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.19.)
Magramo, Kathleen – Taylor, Jerome 2024. Russia has seen two major terror attacks in just three months. Here’s what we know. CNN World. June 24, 2024 https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/24/europe/russia-dagestan-attacks-explainer-intl-hnk (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.15.)
Pandya, Pearl 2025. The battle for the borderlands: The Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan challenges the state’s control. ACLED 6 October 2025 https://acleddata.com/report/battle-borderlands-tehreek-i-taliban-pakistan-challenges-states-control (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.01.)
Raza, Syed Basim – Shoaib, Muhammad 2025. Where Afghanistan Fits in Iran’s Changing Regional Playbook October 31, 2025 The Diplomat. https://thediplomat.com/2025/10/where-afghanistan-fits-in-irans-changing-regional-playbook/ (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.23.)
Sharifi, Kian 2025. Iran's Water Crisis Worsened By Taliban Dam. August 22, 2025 Radio Free Europe. https://www.rferl.org/a/farda-briefing-iran-water-crisis-taliban-pashadan-dam-afghanistan/33509433.html (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.23.)
The Times of Central Asia 2025.(1) Tajik Border Guards Clash with Taliban Fighters Along Afghan Border. 28 October 2025 https://timesca.com/tajik-border-guards-clash-with-taliban-fighters-along-afghan-border/ (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.08.)
The Times of Central Asia 2025.(2) Afghanistan Seeks Alternatives to Pakistan Trade; Fallout Likely for Central Asia. 28 October 2025 https://timesca.com/afghanistan-seeks-alternatives-to-pakistan-trade-fallout-likely-for-central-asia/ (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.15.)
The times of Central Asia 2025 (3) Trans-Afghan Railway: Can Uzbekistan Build a Railway Through Afghanistan to Reach the Sea? https://timesca.com/trans-afghan-railway-can-uzbekistan-build-a-railway-through-afghanistan-to-reach-the-sea/ (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.19.)
TOLO News 2023. Ministry Vows to Improve Country’s Water Management. TOLO News 04. April 2023. https://tolonews.com/afghanistan-182819 (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.17.)
Usman, Sahibzada M. 2025. Post-Doha Agreement Situation. Modern Diplomacy. October 26. 2025. https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2025/10/26/post-doha-agreement-situation/ (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.01.)
ACLED 2025. Asia-Pacific Overview: November 2025. https://acleddata.com/update/asia-pacific-overview-november-2025 (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.15.)
CIA World Factbook. Afghanistan https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/afghanistan/#geography (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.01.)
Final Declaration of the Second Vienna Conference Vienna, Austria April 24-26, 2023 / Saur 4-6 - 1402 HS https://www.oiip.ac.at/cms/media/declaration.pdf (Letöltés ideje: 2025.10.31.)
International Boundary Study 1961. Afghanistan – Iran Boundary (Country Codes: AF-IR) The Geographer Office of the Geographer Bureau of Intelligence and Research. No. 6 – June 20, 1961 https://library.law.fsu.edu/Digital-Collections/LimitsinSeas/pdf/ibs006.pdf (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.17.)
International Crisis Group 2024. The Taliban’s Neighbourhood: Regional Diplomacy with Afghanistan. 30 January 2024 https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-asia/afghanistan/337-talibans-neighbourhood-regional-diplomacy-afghanistan (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.15.)
Joint Statement on the Talks Between Afghanistan and Pakistan Through the Mediation of Türkiye and Qatar. Republic of Türkiye Ministry of Foreign Affairs https://www.mfa.gov.tr/joint-statement-on-the-talks-between-afghanistan-and-pakistan-through-the-mediation-of-turkiye-and-qatar-30-10-2025.en.mfa (Letöltés ideje: 2025.10.31.)
Minority Rights Group, Afghanistan é.n. https://minorityrights.org/communities/tajiks/ (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.15.)
OCHA Afghanistan. Overview of the Humanitarian Response in Afghanistan https://www.unocha.org/afghanistan (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.07.)
OEC Afghanistan. Observatory of Economic Complexity https://oec.world/en/profile/country/afg (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.15.)
Small Arms Survey 2025. Blancafort, Manon – LeBrun, Emile - Edoardo Varisco, Andrea. OPEN MARKETS Documenting Arms Availability in Afghanistan under the Taliban. Briefing Paper March 2025. https://www.smallarmssurvey.org/sites/default/files/resources/SAS-BP-2025-Taliban-Arms-Markets-EN.pdf (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.15.)
The Afghan-Iranian Helmand-River Water Treaty 1973. https://www.internationalwaterlaw.org/documents/regionaldocs/1973_Helmand_River_Water_Treaty-Afghanistan-Iran.pdf (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.17.)
UNAMA 2025. UNAMA welcomes Afghanistan-Pakistan ceasefire, urges protection of civilians. 16. Oct. 2025. https://unama.unmissions.org/unama-welcomes-afghanistan-pakistan-ceasefire-urges-protection-civilians (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.15.)
UN SC Resolution 2025 Small arms and light weapons Report of the Secretary-General. S/2025/670 23 October 2025. https://documents.un.org/doc/undoc/gen/n25/262/95/pdf/n2526295.pdf (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.15.)
Folyóirat cikkek:
Bezhan, Faridullah 2014. The Pashtunistan Issue and Politics in Afghanistan, 1947-1952. Middle East Journal Vol. 68, No. 2 (Spring 2014) https://www.jstor.org/stable/43698155 (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.01.)
Kamil, Ikramuddin 2021. Afghanistan, the Amu Darya Basin and Regional Treaties. Chinese Journal of Environmental Law 08. Jul 2021. https://www.hpacenter.org/en/article/1627/afghanistan_the_amu_darya_basin_and_regional_treaties (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.23.)
Kaura, Vinay 2024. Iran-Taliban ties: Pragmatism over ideology. Middle East Institute. April 11, 2024. https://www.mei.edu/publications/iran-taliban-ties-pragmatism-over-ideology (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.17.)
Milani, Mohsen M. 2006. Iran's Policy Towards Afghanistan The Middle East Journal, Volume 60, Number 2, Spring 2006.
Mir, Asfandyar – Olson, Richard – Watkins, Andrew 2022. Afghanistan-Pakistan Border Dispute Heats Up. United States Institute of Peace. January 12, 2022 https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/01/afghanistan-pakistan-border-dispute-heats (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.15.)
Sevea, Iqbal Singh 2021. The Pashtun Question in Pakistan. South Asia Scan Issue No. 10
January 2021. https://www.isas.nus.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/South-Asia-Scan-Vol-10-Full-14.04.21.pdf (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.01.)
Sofos, Spyros A. 2022. Turkey as a Mediator. The University of Edinburgh https://tinyurl.com/4sxfuejn (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.01.)
Turgunbaeva, Aigerim – Ghiasi, Fayazuddin 2025. The Taliban's Diplomatic and Economic Expansion in Central Asia Central Asia – Caucasus Analyst, Analytical Articles 11 March 2025. https://www.cacianalyst.org/publications/analytical-articles/item/13850-the-new-russia-iran-treaty-implications-for-the-south-caucasus-region.html (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.19.)
Zhanaltay, Zhengizkhan – Makhanov, Kanat 2022. Border Clashes in Afghanistan sincet he Taliban takeover. Eurasian Research Institute, Weekly Analysis, 24.01.2022-30.01.2022 No 339 https://www.eurasian-research.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Weekly-e-bulletin-24.01.2022-30.01.2022-No-339.pdf (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.23.)
Internetes hivatkozások:
Aman, Fatemeh 2021. Iran-Taliban growing ties: What’s different this time? Atlantic Council February 16, 2021 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/iransource/iran-taliban-growing-ties-whats-different-this-time/ (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.17.)
Bajoria, Jayshree 2009 The Troubled Afghan-Pakistani Border. Council on Foreign Relations. https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/troubled-afghan-pakistani-border (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.01.)
Baxtiyor Saidov Telegram oldala 2025.07.17. https://t.me/bakhtiyor_saidov/2945
Daly, John C. K. 2022. Rocket Attacks on Tajikistan and Uzbekistan Undermine Taliban Security Claims. Volume 19 Issue 116. https://jamestown.org/rocket-attacks-on-tajikistan-and-uzbekistan-undermine-taliban-security-claims/ (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.23.)
Climate Diplomacy é.n. Water stress and political tensions in Iran. https://climate-diplomacy.org/case-studies/water-stress-and-political-tensions-iran (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.23.)
Dagres, Holly 2023. Iran and Afghanistan are feuding over the Helmand River. The water wars have no end in sight. Atlantic Council, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/iransource/iran-afghanistan-taliban-water-helmand/ (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.23.)
Faizee, Mohd – Schmeier, Suzanne 2023. Troubled waters between Afghanistan and Iran as border troops clash over the Helmand River. Water, Peace and Security June 1, 2023. https://waterpeacesecurity.org/info/blog-01-06-2023-Troubled-waters-between-Afghanistan-and-Iran-as-border-troops-clash-over-the-Helmand-River (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.17.)
Godek, Sarah 2025. China’s Unenthusiastic Economic Engagement with Taliban-Led Afghanistan. Stimson Center. April 9. 2025. https://www.stimson.org/2025/chinas-unenthusiastic-economic-engagement-with-taliban-led-afghanistan/ (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.23.)
Janjua, Haroon 2022. Increasing tension between Taliban and Pakistan. 04/21/2022 Deutsche Welle https://www.dw.com/en/tensions-increase-between-taliban-and-pakistan-over-attacks/a-61535921 (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.15.)
Joles, Betsy 2025. Pakistan and Afghanistan agree to maintain a ceasefire — for now. Here's what to know. NPR world October 31, 2025 https://www.npr.org/2025/10/31/g-s1-95838/pakistan-afghanistan-ceasefire-taliban-turkey-qatar
Kazakhstan Government 2023. Kazakhstan and Afghanistan intend to expand trade and economic cooperation
https://www.gov.kz/memleket/entities/mti/press/news/details/597308?lang=en (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.19.)
Magramo, Kathleen – Taylor, Jerome 2024. Russia has seen two major terror attacks in just three months. Here’s what we know. CNN World. June 24, 2024 https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/24/europe/russia-dagestan-attacks-explainer-intl-hnk (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.15.)
Pandya, Pearl 2025. The battle for the borderlands: The Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan challenges the state’s control. ACLED 6 October 2025 https://acleddata.com/report/battle-borderlands-tehreek-i-taliban-pakistan-challenges-states-control (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.01.)
Raza, Syed Basim – Shoaib, Muhammad 2025. Where Afghanistan Fits in Iran’s Changing Regional Playbook October 31, 2025 The Diplomat. https://thediplomat.com/2025/10/where-afghanistan-fits-in-irans-changing-regional-playbook/ (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.23.)
Sharifi, Kian 2025. Iran's Water Crisis Worsened By Taliban Dam. August 22, 2025 Radio Free Europe. https://www.rferl.org/a/farda-briefing-iran-water-crisis-taliban-pashadan-dam-afghanistan/33509433.html (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.23.)
The Times of Central Asia 2025.(1) Tajik Border Guards Clash with Taliban Fighters Along Afghan Border. 28 October 2025 https://timesca.com/tajik-border-guards-clash-with-taliban-fighters-along-afghan-border/ (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.08.)
The Times of Central Asia 2025.(2) Afghanistan Seeks Alternatives to Pakistan Trade; Fallout Likely for Central Asia. 28 October 2025 https://timesca.com/afghanistan-seeks-alternatives-to-pakistan-trade-fallout-likely-for-central-asia/ (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.15.)
The times of Central Asia 2025 (3) Trans-Afghan Railway: Can Uzbekistan Build a Railway Through Afghanistan to Reach the Sea? https://timesca.com/trans-afghan-railway-can-uzbekistan-build-a-railway-through-afghanistan-to-reach-the-sea/ (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.19.)
TOLO News 2023. Ministry Vows to Improve Country’s Water Management. TOLO News 04. April 2023. https://tolonews.com/afghanistan-182819 (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.17.)
Usman, Sahibzada M. 2025. Post-Doha Agreement Situation. Modern Diplomacy. October 26. 2025. https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2025/10/26/post-doha-agreement-situation/ (Letöltés ideje: 2025.11.01.)
Megjelent
2026-03-30
Folyóirat szám
Rovat
Biztonságpolitika
