The theory of the Russian coercive strategy against Ukraine

Abstract

This study examines the theoretical foundations of Russia’s coercive strategy against Ukraine, with particular emphasis on strikes against critical infrastructure. It explores how Russian military thinking integrates the concepts of non-nuclear deterrence and non-contact warfare, and how these are linked to a coercive logic centred on degrading the civilian population’s quality of life. Drawing on a 2011 Russian theoretical framework, the article analyses the prioritization of target selection, highlighting energy infrastructure as a key instrument of societal pressure. The study argues that Russia’s strategy is aimed less at directly coercing the Ukrainian political leadership than at exerting pressure through the broad-based deterioration of living conditions. The war in Ukraine serves as a “laboratory” for the further development of Russian deterrence and coercion concepts in which non-nuclear instruments and operations against critical infrastructure are likely to play an increasingly prominent role.