Hungarian Economic Review

Outline of eight decades of Hungarian economic thought (1945–2025)

2026-06-10T09:22:56+00:00

This study reviews the main directions in the development of Hungarian economics between 1945 and 2025. The analysis focuses on two central questions: integration into international intellectual currents and the social usefulness of economic thought. The paper argues that the history of Hungarian economics has been closely intertwined with the country’s political and institutional transformations. During the period of the socialist planned economy, Marxism became the official ideology; at the same time, however, the most enduring achievements of Hungarian economic thought emerged precisely from empirical analyses of the system’s dysfunctions and from the gradual reception of international theoretical approaches. The study also demonstrates how the post-socialist transition created new opportunities for international integration while simultaneously generating new forms of dependency and institutional tensions. The analysis addresses the specific features of the post-2010 period as well, especially issues related to the expanding role of the state, the organisation of research, and the measurement of scientific performance. The paper concludes that the most important tradition of Hungarian economics lies in its commitment to empirical analysis, international openness, and a moderate analytical approach that avoids ideological extremes.

Relative changes in pensions, mixed indexation, and their alternatives

2026-06-10T09:22:56+00:00

In Hungary, since 2010, existing pensions have in principle followed only consumer price indices, meaning they maintain their real value but are highly likely to lag behind officially reported wages; the older a pension, the more pronounced this gap becomes. This relative depreciation – partly illusory due to the overstatement of official wage growth – is mitigated by the introduction of 13th and 14th-month pensions between 2021–2022 and 2026–2029. A sustainable solution would require a return to mixed (Swiss) indexation, which is technically supported by the fact that since 2020, alternative statistical sources regarding wage changes have become synchronised. However, the budgetary costs of this shift should be covered by moderating initial pensions. It would be advisable to make the 14th-month pension progressive (i.e., a decreasing function of the reference wage), thereby dampening excessive pension inequalities.

A technológiai háború nyertesei és vesztesei

2026-06-10T09:22:56+00:00

A tanulmány az amerikai–kínai technológiai rivalizálás egyik kulcsfontosságú iparpolitikai fordulópontját, a CHIPS and Science Act jogalkotási folyamatát vizsgálja, különös tekintettel annak félvezetőipari piaci hatásaira. A kutatás azt elemzi, hogy az amerikai technonacionalista iparpolitika miként befolyásolta a globális mikrochip ellátási lánc vállalatainak részvénypiaci teljesítményét, illetve javította-e az amerikai félvezetőipar versenyképességét. Az elemzés öt meghatározó jogalkotási eseményre épül, és a vezető félvezetőipari vállalatok kumulált abnormális hozamait (CAR) vizsgálja. A kutatás az eseményhatás-elemzést lineáris regxresszióval és hosszú rövid távú memóriára (LSTM) épülő neurális hálózati modellel kombinálja a várható hozamok becslésére. A keresztmetszeti korrelációra korrigált tesztek két eseménynél mutatnak ki robusztus piaci reakciót: a H.R. 4346 hordozótörvény-stratégia 2022. július 19-i bejelentésénél szignifikáns pozitív, míg a törvény 2022. augusztus 9-i aláírásánál rövid távú negatív reakció jelentkezett. A korai jogalkotási lépésekre nem volt kimutatható szignifikáns reakció. A hatások erősen csoportfüggők: az aláírási eseménynél a bérgyártók és az integrált eszközgyártók reakciója statisztikailag szignifikánsan eltért egymástól. Az eredmények szerint az iparpolitikai beavatkozások hatása jelentősen különbözik az ellátási lánc egyes szegmensei között, és a vállalatok üzleti modellje, illetve földrajzielhelyezkedése meghatározó a befektetői reakciók alakulásában.

Regional differences in unfilled job vacancies in Hungary

2026-06-10T09:22:56+00:00

This paper examines regional inequalities in labour market tightness using representative firm-level survey data. The analysis is based on linking the Hungarian Central Statistical Office’s quarterly vacancy survey with the Labour Force Survey, balance sheet data and the T-STAR database. The results show that the number of vacant jobs exceeds the number of unemployed workers only among university graduates; therefore, it is not appropriate to speak of a labour shortage in general. Among lower-educated workers, the existence of vacant positions primarily reflects labour market frictions and matching problems rather than an overall shortage of labour. The study identifies significant regional differences in the proportion of unfilled job vacancies even among microregions (járások) within the same county. The results suggest that labour markets are less tight in smaller rural microregions than in larger urban centres, pointing to the importance of mobility constraints. Applying the method developed by Şahin et al. (2014), the paper also estimates the efficiency losses caused by regional inequalities. The results indicate that, in the absence of within-county mobility barriers, the job-finding rate would be approximately 20 percent higher. The paper concludes that policies aimed at reducing mobility costs could substantially improve employment opportunities in peripheral regions.

Resilience of the Hungarian SME sector during and after the pandemic

2026-06-10T09:22:56+00:00

The study examines how resilient Hungarian small and medium-sized enterprises were during and after the COVID–19 pandemic. Based on a randomly selected sample, our empirical analysis explores both the objective (financial and operational data) and subjective (self-assessment-based) dimensions of resilience. Using revenue-based recovery indicators, we classify firms into resilient and non-resilient groups; the latter are further divided into four clusters: resurgent rebuilders, wounded partial returners, steadily growing balanced firms, and stagnant constrained firms. Our results show that resilient firms flexibly reduced both their wage bill and material expenditures during the crisis, whereas most non-resilient firms exhibited cost rigidity. Resilient companies also started from higher levels of indebtedness, implying greater financing capacity. We found no significant link between digitalization and financial resilience, but we did identify a positive relationship between objective and subjective resilience. The findings contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of corporate crisis management practices and the resilience of SMEs.