Hungarian Geographical Bulletin

The WRF model as a new tool for investigating climate change in the Carpathian region - Near-future projections of temperature and precipitation

Ákos János Varga, Zsuzsanna Zempléni, Hajnalka Breuer — Wed, 30 Sep 2026 11:35:43 +0000

This study presents the first application of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for regional climate modelling in Hungary, specifically adapted for the Carpathian Basin. Simulations for the historical (1985–2010) and future (2020–2045) periods were conducted using WRF with a 10 km grid spacing, downscaling the MPI-ESM1-2-LR global climate model from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The future simulation employs the high-emission SSP5-8.5 scenario. The CARPATCLIM observational dataset was used for model evaluation and bias correction. Expected changes in mean temperature and precipitation between the future and historical periods are assessed based on the bias-corrected WRF simulations. WRF projects a spatially averaged temperature increase of 1 °C in winter, 0.7 °C in summer, and 0.6 °C in spring and autumn over Hungary. Precipitation is projected to increase by 12 percent in winter, 31 percent in spring, and 21 percent in autumn, with no significant change in summer. While future climate change assessments should always be based on multiple model simulations, this study demonstrates the utility of WRF as a regional climate model for the Carpathian region.

Progressive lake warming in Central Europe: six decades of trends in lake heat waves in Poland

Mariusz Ptak, Teerachai Amnuaylojaroen, Mariusz Sojka — Wed, 30 Sep 2026 12:06:24 +0000

Against the backdrop of observed climate changes, there is growing interest in the extreme course of processes and phenomena in the natural environment. This trend is also being explored in relation to various components of the hydrosphere, in which one fundamental characteristic is water temperature. The aim of this study was to assess the temporal and spatial variability of heat waves occurring in lakes. The research material included daily water temperatures from 1964 to 2023 for nine temperate-zone lakes with diverse morphometric parameters. The study found that the duration, cumulative intensity, and maximum intensity of heat waves increased over the last six decades. In general, the first half of the analysed period was relatively stable in the context of the study, whereas the most recent three decades showed an increase in various heat wave characteristics. A sharp increase in the duration and cumulative intensity of heat waves was observed, along with greater variability in these parameters across years and among the studied lakes. The average rate of change in heat wave duration, maximum intensity, and cumulative intensity increased by 15 days per decade, 0.5 °C per decade, and 50 °C per decade, respectively. Additionally, the changes in average heat wave duration and cumulative intensity more than doubled between 1996 and 2023. These findings should be considered unfavourable in both natural processes and the economic aspects of lake utilization. This situation creates a new reality that should be taken into account when considering potential restoration efforts to improve water quality.

Evaluating flood frequency analysis of the rivers in the Skopje Basin, North Macedonia – Statistical distribution fitting and hydrological insights

Igor Leščešen, Ivan Radevski, Ana M. Petrović — Wed, 30 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000

This study examines the flood frequency analysis (FFA) of four rivers in North Macedonia: Vardar, Treska, Lepenac, and Serava. The aim is to contribute to water resource management, flood risk mitigation, and resilience to climate change through detailed seasonal analysis. The most appropriate probability distributions were determined for each river: Pearson Type III (PIII) for the summer and winter seasons in the Vardar, PIII for summer, and Gamma for winter in the Treska, PIII for both seasons in the Lepenac, and PIII for summer and Log-Normal for winter in the Serava. For each distribution, discharge estimates were calculated for different return periods. The results show significant seasonal variations in discharge, especially for the Treska and Lepenac rivers. For the Treska, winter discharges are significantly higher than summer discharges in all return periods, indicating that winter conditions mainly determine the annual flood risk. The Lepenac shows a similar pattern with significantly higher discharges in winter. In contrast, the Vardar shows relatively constant discharges between summer and winter, suggesting a balanced seasonal contribution to the annual flood risk. The Serava shows less seasonal variation, indicating a less variable hydrological system.
These results emphasise the importance of considering both annual and seasonal variability in the FFA to improve the accuracy of flood risk assessments and support effective water resource management. This research highlights the need for customised flood frequency models that account for seasonal runoff patterns to improve prediction accuracy and provide information for strategic planning in the face of climate change.

Exploring the smart city agenda using knowledge networks – The emergence of a new global city landscape

Zsófia Viktória Vida, Balázs Borsi — Wed, 30 Sep 2026 12:41:46 +0000

In the era of digital transformation, cities increasingly adopt technology-based smart city (SC) agendas. However, implementation depends heavily on locally available scientific knowledge that is simultaneously embedded in global networks. To explore this paradoxical tension, this study provides a nuanced, globalscale analysis of the nexus between academic SC knowledge production and urban economic status. We used Web of Science (WoS) publication metadata (keywords and affiliations) across two distinct periods: 2010–2017 and 2018–2022. First, we employed network analysis (keyword-based thematic networks) to reveal academic SC knowledge segments. Then, we used affiliation data of publications for mapping SC knowledge hubs by scientific output globally. Finally, we derived SC knowledge ranking from collaboration data, adopting the Globalization and World Cities (GaWC) ranking methodology. We used the GaWC economic-related ranking for capturing economic status, based on the international corporate advanced producer services-related firms’ data in 2016 and 2020. Our findings confirm that academic SC knowledge is highly interdisciplinary with a strong technological focus. While an increasing number of cities accumulate SC knowledge production, it becomes concentrated within a small subset of hubs. In addition, emerging economies such as China, India, South Korea, and Brazil as newly prominent regional hubs, are strengthening their position in the global knowledge landscape. Comparing SC knowledge ranking with GaWC ranking, focusing on change in time, our analysis reveals four distinct urban trajectories: dynamic cities of economic and SC knowledge importance; SC knowledge accumulators; economic weight gainers; and potential laggards. Although European cities dominate the top 100 in the rankings, a dynamic shift appears: European cities are mostly sliding into the economic weight gainer or potential laggard categories, while Asian (especially Chinese) cities dominate the dynamic category. These trajectories signal an emerging global urban paradigm where local SC knowledge increasingly complements traditional economic dimensions, particularly in less prominent cities.

Subcultural space through the adaptive cycle – Resistance and commodification in Berlin Kreuzberg SO36

Dávid Till, Dávid Sümeghy — Wed, 30 Sep 2026 13:08:53 +0000

Urban transformation is commonly interpreted through processes of capital accumulation, gentrification, and displacement, while less attention has been paid to the temporal trajectories of subcultural spaces and their changing relationship with commodification. This study examines whether Holling’s adaptive cycle provides a useful analytical framework for interpreting these transformations in Berlin’s Kreuzberg SO36. The research combines literature and document analysis with fieldwork conducted during four visits between 2023 and 2025, including systematic site observation and photographic documentation, supplemented by focused microinterviews. Three symbolically significant sites – the Georg von Rauch Haus, M99, and Cuvrybrache – are examined as contrasting trajectories of subcultural spatial production. The findings show that these spaces can be interpreted through different phases of the adaptive cycle, characterized by changing configurations of potential, connectedness, and resilience. The cases further demonstrate that the accumulation of cultural and symbolic value can simultaneously strengthen subcultural spaces and increase their susceptibility to institutionalization and economic appropriation. However, these trajectories are not deterministic: legalization may constrain autonomy while supporting persistence, whereas displacement and redevelopment produce different outcomes. The study demonstrates the value of the adaptive cycle as a qualitative heuristic for interpreting the non-linear transformation of contested urban spaces.

Herb, G.H., Moorti, S. and Fuentes-George, K.: Middlebury Atlas of Globalization

Géza Barta — Wed, 30 Sep 2026 13:18:04 +0000

McAllister, K.E., Yoshizmizu, A. and Ahadi, D. (eds.): Migration and the Politics of Methodology. Doing fieldwork, decentring power, and foregrounding migrants’ perspectives

Gábor Lados — Wed, 30 Sep 2026 13:27:34 +0000