Progressive lake warming in Central Europe: six decades of trends in lake heat waves in Poland
Abstract
Against the backdrop of observed climate changes, there is growing interest in the extreme course of processes and phenomena in the natural environment. This trend is also being explored in relation to various components of the hydrosphere, in which one fundamental characteristic is water temperature. The aim of this study was to assess the temporal and spatial variability of heat waves occurring in lakes. The research material included daily water temperatures from 1964 to 2023 for nine temperate-zone lakes with diverse morphometric parameters. The study found that the duration, cumulative intensity, and maximum intensity of heat waves increased over the last six decades. In general, the first half of the analysed period was relatively stable in the context of the study, whereas the most recent three decades showed an increase in various heat wave characteristics. A sharp increase in the duration and cumulative intensity of heat waves was observed, along with greater variability in these parameters across years and among the studied lakes. The average rate of change in heat wave duration, maximum intensity, and cumulative intensity increased by 15 days per decade, 0.5 °C per decade, and 50 °C per decade, respectively. Additionally, the changes in average heat wave duration and cumulative intensity more than doubled between 1996 and 2023. These findings should be considered unfavourable in both natural processes and the economic aspects of lake utilization. This situation creates a new reality that should be taken into account when considering potential restoration efforts to improve water quality.
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